Journal of Applied Ecology
○ Wiley
Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Journal of Applied Ecology's content profile, based on 39 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.04% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.
Yamaguchi, K.; Uchida, K.; Hiraiwa, M.; Fukano, Y.
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Citizen science observations are abundant, but conservation requires turning uneven records into reliable predictions and directing new surveys to where information is missing. We developed a biodiversity platform for Japan that is updated monthly and integrates 2.32 million records to predict 8,297 species across seven taxonomic groups. Shared representation models outperformed species-specific models in four groups and extended predictions to species with few records. Five independent datasets, including structured monitoring, environmental DNA and complete forest inventories, confirmed that the models ranked observed species and occupied sites above alternatives, with median AUCs of 0.724 to 0.894 across sites and 0.650 to 0.841 across species. For any user-selected area, the platform returns candidate species, distribution predictions, a biodiversity map corrected for uneven observation effort, a conservation priority map for native species and a map recommending where to survey next. This map highlights places where species with few records are predicted to occur despite limited sampling. Independent observations showed that areas ranked highly by this predicted potential contained many such species, indicating that model predictions can help direct surveys toward knowledge gaps. New observations are incorporated into monthly updates, creating a national feedback system connecting citizen science, local conservation decisions and future surveys.
Monaghan, A. I. T.; Griffiths, N. P.; Sellers, G. S.; Lawson Handley, L.; Nunn, A. D.; Hänfling, B.; Macarthur, J. A.; Wright, R. M.; Cattaneo, M.; Bolland, J. D.
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Context Pumping stations pose a threat to fish globally through land use change, habitat fragmentation and entrainment risk, with the catadromous and critically endangered European eel particularly impacted. Objectives/methods Establish, model, assess and understand the present-day distribution of European eel and resident fishes in 152 pumping station catchments in a once extensive wetland (The Fens) using eDNA metabarcoding (855 samples over two and half years), with specific focus on anthropogenic influences on hydrological connectivity and habitat quality. A removal survey design maximised confidence in negative results while minimising time and consumable costs. Results Eel occurrence upstream of pumping stations was low (occupancy = 28.3%) and positively associated with catchment area, fish species richness and natural hydrological connectivity (gravity drainage or flooding) and negatively associated with distance from the tidal limit. Fish species richness replaced catchment area and improved model performance, potentially acting as a biotic indicator of habitat quality and connectivity. Pumped catchments with manually operated upstream water transfers had reduced eel presence, potentially linked to the direction of water flow or the timing of operation. By contrast, fish species richness increased in these catchments during summer, suggesting displacement into unsuitable long-term habitats. Physical habitat maintenance had no detectable effect on eel occurrence or fish species richness. Conclusions This study provides the first landscape-scale assessment of European eel distribution and drivers of occurrence in pumped river catchments. The highly novel and comprehensive insights have implications for European eel conservation as well as infrastructure and catchment management, including compliance with legislation (EC Regulation No. 1100/2007).
Baumeister, J.; Bakhtiari, M. M.; Schreiber, M.; Eisenring, M.; Gossner, M.; Walden, S.; Becker, A.; Bouffaud, M. L.; Cesarz, S.; Dauphin, B.; Eisenhauer, N.; Goldmann, K.; Heidrich, L.; Jurburg, S.; Junker, R. R.; Kreuzwieser, J.; Lampei, C.; Nauss, T.; Peter, M.; Prada-Salcedo, L.; Tarkka, M.; Werner, C.; Zeuss, D.; Herrmann, S.; Buscot, F.; Heer, K.; Opgenoorth, L.
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1. Forest canopies harbour strong microclimatic gradients that shape plant performance, species interactions and ecosystem processes. Yet, despite renewed interest sparked by global change, forest canopies remain difficult-to-access experimental spaces. 2. With the goal to expand access to tree canopies as experimental arenas, we designed, built, and tested TreeTOP, a standardized experimental platform that opens canopy space for manipulative ecological experiments, specifically with potted plants. TreeTOP features lightweight aluminum frames placed in mature tree canopies non-invasively, allowing potted plants to be placed in three different heights, ground level, shade canopy, and sun canopy. 3. We implemented TreeTOP using two contrasting infrastructure concepts to demonstrate its applicability in both highly equipped canopy research facilities and forests without permanent canopy infrastructure. One installation relied on a canopy crane, grid power and fully automated irrigation, whereas the second was built by certified tree climbers and was equipped with an autonomous solar-powered, battery-operated irrigation system. At both sites, environmental sensor networks monitor the experiment. 4. TreeTOP successfully reproduced characteristic canopy microclimatic gradients, including increasing light availability, daytime air temperatures and thermal extremes with canopy height. Despite differing infrastructures, both implementations generated comparable microclimatic patterns, demonstrating that standardized canopy experiments are feasible in forests with or without permanent canopy access. By opening canopy space for manipulative experiments, TreeTOP provides a transferable framework for investigating plant performance, phenology, species interactions and microbiome assembly under realistic forest conditions.
Zapfe, K. L.; Parker, E.; Elias, D.; Hogue, G. M.; Dornburg, A.
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Urbanization is reshaping freshwater ecosystems, with well-documented effects across gradients of land-use change, hydrologic alteration, and habitat degradation. However, how biodiversity is organized among neighboring urban aquatic habitats that differ in hydrologic connectivity, disturbance transmission, residence time, management history, and opportunities for species movement is often less clear. This creates a challenge for interpreting urban fish communities at local scales as species occurrence may reflect both contemporary habitat filtering and historical contingencies including native persistence, interbasin transfer, stocking, and nonindigenous introductions. Here we use eDNA detections, historical records, phylogenetic information, and species trait data to investigate the fish assemblages of the Charlotte metropolitan region. We detect a highly mixed fauna that also depicts a strong signature of structured biodiversity profiles across taxonomic, phylogenetic, functional, and life-history dimensions between habitat types. In particular, bounded habitats contained assemblages with larger-bodied species that are fecund and faster to reproduce relative to free-flowing habitats. Species-level occurrence models did not support a simple trait-by-habitat rule. Instead our results demonstrate that urban aquatic habitats can sort historically mixed regional species pools into predictable assemblage-level life-history profiles while simultaneously retaining signatures of evolutionary and historical biogeographic contingency.
White, J. R.; Robinson, J. D.; Doremus, M. R.
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Heritable bacterial symbionts are pervasive in terrestrial arthropods, often imposing reproductive manipulations to promote their own spread within host populations. Co-infections are common, potentially allowing symbiont co-infectors to hitchhike through a host population. However, adverse thermal conditions can disrupt these communities, particularly when co-infectors vary in their thermal sensitivity. We used a multi-generation experiment to test whether warm (29 {degrees}C) conditions disrupted spread of heritable symbionts through uninfected populations of the spider, Mermessus fradeorum. We tested two common infection combinations: a single infection with a cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) inducing Rickettsiella or a feminizing co-infection that included a feminizing Wolbachia, the same Rickettsiella, and up to three apparent hitchhikers (two additional Wolbachia strains and Tisiphia). We initiated replicate populations with 1/3 of one infection type and 2/3 uninfected spiders, evaluating population infection rate over 5 spider generations under different temperature regimes. Under cool (21{degrees}C) conditions, Wolbachia feminization drove co-infection to 88% and Rickettsiella CI drove single infection to 83% of host populations. Vertical transmission for all symbionts was high (97-99%) and hitchhiking symbionts also spread effectively. Under warm conditions, feminization and CI efficacy were reduced, and symbionts suffered variably reduced vertical transmission. Warm conditions ultimately destroyed the co-infecting symbiont consortium and impeded symbiont spread. On its own, though, Rickettsiella was still able to increase, despite reduced strength of CI. We hypothesize that contrasting tensions between feminizing spread of the symbiont consortium versus environmentally driven loss of function and transmission may explain observed patterns of mixed infections in field populations of this spider.
Koshute, P.; Fagan, W. F.
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Ecologists remotely track movement steps of animals (e.g., via global positioning systems) and use step selection functions to study the effect of environmental factors upon their movement decisions. Constructing such functions requires pairing each observed step with some number of unobserved but feasible comparison steps. Larger numbers of comparison steps generally yield better estimates but also incur potentially challenging computational demands. Thus, it is important to determine an appropriate number of comparison steps. No established guidance exists for this decision. Here, we use simulated tracks to assess how many comparison steps are needed, fitting each set of steps to a conditional logistic regression model. We monitor errors in estimated effects for several classes of tracks, identifying the number of comparison steps for which mean relative absolute error in estimated effects is consistently low. By this criterion, 32 comparison steps per observed step are needed for our primary class of simulated tracks. Tracks in more homogeneous landscapes, tracks with shorter mean step lengths, or shorter tracks generally require more comparison steps (ranging from 64 to 128 per observed step) to achieve the same level of accuracy. Longer tracks generally require fewer comparison steps (16 per observed step). These results clearly demonstrate that the number of comparison steps influences how well step selection functions estimate covariate effects and provides initial direction in a research area that currently lacks quantitative guidance. Movement ecologists should take care when selecting the number of comparison steps paired with each observed step because those decisions matter.
Adam, L.; Montagna, M.; Roma, V.; Mancini, A.; Papafitsoros, K.
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Wildlife re-identification (re-ID) is a widely used and powerful tool with diverse applications in animal ecology and conservation. Current automated methods typically operate on single images of a single body part of the animal. However, a single encounter may contain multiple images capturing different body regions, each providing complementary individual-specific information. In contrast to automated approaches, researchers often manually select the most suitable images and regions for identification based on factors like visibility, occlusion and image quality. This creates a mismatch between automated methods and field practice, limiting the practical adoption of current automated re-ID pipelines. Here, we address this by introducing an encounter-based, multi-body-part re-ID framework, using sea turtles as a model taxon. Our framework combines three elements: (1) An orientation-aware deep learning model, TurtleDetector, that in addition to the full bodies, it also automatically segments key body regions, i.e. heads, front and hind flippers, from images within an encounter; (2) a hybrid body-part-specific retrieval method, that sequentially combines a fast global-feature model (MiewID or DINOv3) with a more accurate but costlier local-feature model (ALIKED with LightGlue); and (3) a merged identity-prediction strategy that selects the highest calibrated similarity score across all available body parts and images of an encounter. We evaluate the framework on three long-term re-ID datasets spanning three species, loggerheads, greens, and hawksbill turtles, under an evaluation protocol that mirrors real-world, time-aware re-ID workflows. Across datasets, combining multiple body regions consistently improved identification performance over the best-performing single body region, resulting to an increase of 4-6% in top-1 accuracy. Interestingly, body regions traditionally underused in sea turtle re-ID, such as the hind flippers and carapaces, provided complementary identifying information that improved encounter-level re-ID when integrated through the hybrid retrieval method. Our findings demonstrate that automated wildlife re-ID can benefit from moving beyond single-image, single-body-part identification towards encounter-level integration of all available visual evidence. Our work further suggests that, where feasible, field photo-acquisition protocols should aim to capture multiple informative views of an individual during each encounter. Importantly, many species and taxa, including elephants, primates, cetaceans, and other large vertebrates, possess such individual-specific features across multiple body regions, highlighting the broad potential applicability of our framework.
Tomoleoni, J. A.; Yee, J. L.; Seacord, E.; Staedler, M. M.; Hatfield, B. B.; Carswell, L.; Fujii, J.; Bentall, G. B.; Konrad, L.; Young, C.; Tinker, M. T.; Bowen, L.
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The southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) population at San Nicolas Island, California, has been monitored annually since the translocation of 140 sea otters to the island was completed in 1990. Monitoring efforts have varied in frequency and method across years. In 2017, in accordance with the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2016, the U.S. Navy and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service formally initiated a sea otter monitoring and research plan to determine the effects of military readiness activities on the growth or decline of the southern sea otter population at San Nicolas Island. The monitoring program, at its basic level, includes quarterly seasonal surveys of population abundance, distribution, and foraging activity. This report presents data from the program with a focus on the recent three years from winter 2023 through winter (February) 2026. From 2023 to 2026, we measured an 8.1-percent per annum decrease in population abundance (95-percent confidence interval =1.1-14.6 percent), with 106 total individuals counted as of February 2026. Historically, sea otter habitat usage at San Nicolas Island was concentrated on the west end of the island. Between 2017 and 2019, we observed increased seasonal usage of the north and south sides of the island, and in 2020-2022, a large (approximately 30-40 individuals) group of sea otters (raft) took up residence off the east end. During 2023-2026 the east end raft disappeared, and sea otters returned to their historical habitat usage patterns at the west end of the island. Foraging data were collected from summer 2023 to winter 2026 on a total of 461 foraging dives in 32 foraging bouts, and the majority of identified prey on successful dives (n=325) were sea urchins (124) followed by snails (48), bivalves (41) and crabs (23). One lobster and one octopus were also identified among the sea otter prey items. We combined these data with data from 2020-2022 to estimate overall energy intake rates that averaged 7.7 kilocalories per minute (95-percent credible interval =6.6-9.1 kilocalories per minute). These results can be useful to the planning of future monitoring and research of sea otters at San Nicolas Island.
Lopez-Idiaquez, D.; Satarkar, D.; Sheldon, B. C.
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Most evidence of the consequences of climate change in natural systems has focussed on shifts in mean temperature (1,2), but the effects of extreme climatic events (ECEs) remain far less understood. This is particularly true for very severe ECEs that may occur only once every few decades. Understanding the consequences of these severe events for natural populations is nonetheless critical, since their frequency is predicted to rise under current climate change (3). Here we combine a unique long-term dataset spanning almost five decades of breeding (>20,000 events) and morphological data (>120,000 observations) in adult and nestling great tits (Parus major) and blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) with fine-scale temperature records to examine the effects of an unprecedented heatwave in May 2026 on breeding success and morphology. Average temperature during the heatwave (22-29 May 2026) was 7.85 C above the historical record, reaching +10.5 C (+4.32 SD) at its peak (25-26 May). These record-breaking temperatures significantly reduced adult breeding success and nestling bmass relative to expectation in the absence of a heat-wave. Given the heatwave was widespread (Fig. 1A), our findings from a single, exceptionally well-studied population are likely to generalise to other species exposed to the same event, providing key evidence that severe ECEs can substantially harm wild populations.
Fiatsonu, E.; Hill, D.; Christopher, D.; Larsen, D.
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Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as a powerful population-level surveillance tool, but its coverage is structurally concentrated in in-network urban areas, potentially leaving rural populations underrepresented. Routine human movement between sewered (in-network) and unsewered (off-network) areas may, however, cause wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) measurements to reflect infectious disease dynamics beyond sewer boundaries. We evaluated this hypothesis using daily clinical COVID-19 testing data (January 2021-April 2022) across New York State excluding New York City (NYC). We disaggregated weekly cases and tests into in-network (WWTP catchment area) and off-network (outside WWTP catchment area) components applied to two geographic frameworks: administrative counties (N = 53 mixed-coverage) and mobility-defined communities identified through Walktrap community detection applied to census tract-level movement networks (N = 32 mixed-coverage). In/off-network COVID-19 trends were strongly correlated under both frameworks. County-level statewide aggregate correlations were high (incidence r = 0.994, positivity r = 0.996), as were individual county correlations (median r = 0.909 and 0.932, respectively). Mobility-defined community-level statewide correlations were similarly strong (r = 0.990 and 0.992), with comparable unit-level medians (r = 0.877 and 0.894). The mobility-defined community framework provided better population balance between in-network and off-network strata (87.5% vs. 69.8% in balanced range) and a higher floor on representativeness (minimum r = 0.440 vs. 0.177). Population size was the dominant predictor of in-network/off-network alignment at both scales; wastewater infrastructure density and off-network signal variability provided additional explanatory power at the mobility-defined community level. WWTPs broadly represent COVID-19 dynamics in surrounding off-network populations, supporting their use as sentinel surveillance sites. Representativeness weakens in smaller, more rural communities, and mobility-defined communities provide a complementary framework for identifying where this occurs.
van Denderen, P. D.; Andersen, K. H.; Denechere, R.
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Squid abundance has been reported to increase globally between 1970 and 2010. This increase has been hypothesized to result from two primary factors: the loss of top predators due to overfishing and rising ocean temperatures. The decline in apex predators may lead to the expansion of squid populations either through reduced predation pressure or diminished competition with juvenile predators. Concurrently, increased temperatures could enhance the somatic growth rates of squid, thereby accelerating their population growth. However, empirically disentangling the impacts of predator loss and temperature on squid biomass remains challenging, especially in a food-web context. In this study, we used a size- and trait-based model of upper trophic levels that resolves the ecosystem structure -- biomass and trophic interactions of fish and squid -- for varying depth, temperature, and secondary production, to investigate two hypotheses of the historical expansion of squid, i.e., the effects of predator depletion from fishing and rising temperatures on squid biomass. Our model reveals that intensified fishing of squid predators -- specifically large demersal fish in shelf systems and large pelagic fish in open oceans -- leads to a slight increase in squid biomass. Conversely, elevated temperatures are associated with a decline in squid biomass. This temperature-driven reduction in biomass is attributed to an increased metabolism of squids beyond the available food supply. If historic overfishing on large marine predators continues to be curtailed, we expect a corresponding reduction in global squid biomass and fisheries potential, which could be further exacerbated by rising temperatures.
Barral, A.; Suzuki, K.; Kikuchi, Y.; Nakaoka, S.-i.; Takao, S.; Nakaoka, S.
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Marine diatoms contribute to about 20% of global primary production. We present the first basin-scale, multiyear assessment of diatom communities in the North Pacific, combining taxonomically high-resolution RuBisCO large subunit gene (rbcL) metabarcoding with concurrent environmental measurements. Using a nine-year time series of daily samples resolved at the species level via ~500 bp rbcL fragments, we performed multivariate analyses across biogeographic provinces, identifying significant correlations between community structure and environmental drivers such as temperature and macronutrient availability. We report the prevalence of a previously overlooked centric diatom species in the North Pacific, Eunotogramma lunatum, which appears to be near-dominant even in subarctic high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll waters where pennate diatoms are typically favored. These results demonstrate the power of rbcL for large-scale ocean monitoring and provide a critical baseline for future studies of diatom population dynamics, climate change impacts, and ecosystem resilience in a key marine region.
Gorobets, O.; Vinh-Hung, V.
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Background: Prostate cancer enzalutamide treatment is approved at a standard dose of 160 mg daily. Concerns for real-world patients -- older and more fragile than those enrolled in clinical trials -- have prompted consideration of initiating treatment with lower doses, but the long-term efficacy of this approach remains unknown. We evaluate the long-term survival and longevity in patients treated with standard versus upfront low-dose enzalutamide. Methods: Retrospective analysis of 151 patients treated with enzalutamide (102 receiving 160 mg; 49 receiving [≤]80 mg) between 2014--2021 at the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Martinique, with complete follow-up through end of life (98.7% completeness of follow-up). Primary outcomes were overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and longevity (attained age). Results: Doses [≤]80 mg were associated with longer median OS (36.3 vs. 20.7 months), improved restricted mean OS (difference of 0.7 years, p=0.05), and enhanced longevity (median 82.5 vs. 78.3 years, p=0.004). PSA response rate at 12 weeks was higher with lower-dose (71.4% vs. 48.8%, p=0.016). In multivariable models adjusted for prognostic factors, [≤]40 mg compared with 160 mg was non-inferior regarding OS (HR=0.61, 95% CI 0.36--1.06), superior regarding PFS (HR=0.59, 95% CI 0.35--0.99), and superior regarding longevity (HR=0.48, 95% CI 0.28--0.84). Bone metastasis, poor performance status, PSA response, time to PSA nadir, and disease duration were independent predictors of outcomes. A post-hoc analysis revealed a strong association between dose and physician-prescribing profiles, ranging from "endorse-lowest-dose" to "never-deviate-from-full-dose". Conclusions: Lower doses of enzalutamide were non-inferior to full-dose. Dose-adapted strategies warrant further investigation.
Dyer, B. P.; Deery, M.; Heyman, R.; Robinson, P.; Wainwright, C.; Sly, P.; Ware, R.; Blake, T.
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Background Elexacaftor-tezacaftor-ivacaftor (ETI) has been demonstrated to improve lung function in clinical trials; however, evidence describing effects on trajectories and whether long-term improvements are sustained (>1-year) is lacking. We estimated within-person lung clearance index (LCI) trajectories before and after ETI initiation, assessing changes in level and rate of change, alongside acute LCI change, up to three years after ETI initiation. Methods Prospective observational study of children at a tertiary hospital. Children aged 3-17 years with [≥]2 LCI testing occasions (i) before and (ii) after starting ETI were used to describe lung function trajectories. Children with [≥]1 pre-ETI and [≥]1 post-ETI LCI occasion(s) were used to describe acute LCI change after ETI initiation. Age-adjusted LCI trajectories for time periods (i) before and (ii) after ETI initiation were estimated using linear mixed-effects models, and pre- and post-ETI LCIs were compared using paired Wilcoxon tests. Results Mean pre-ETI and post-ETI longitudinal changes in LCI were -0.007 (95% CI: -0.28, 0.27; n=35) and 0.12 (95% CI: -0.17, 0.41; n=20) turnovers per year, respectively. Before ETI initiation, 57% (30/53) of patients had an LCI[≥]7.1 turnovers (indicating impaired lung function), compared to 26% (14/53) post-ETI, with a median LCI difference of -0.70 (95% CI -0.84, -0.46; p<0.001) turnovers. Within-individual variability in LCI decreased post-ETI. Conclusions Our real-world data within a unique longitudinal study provide a comprehensive picture of ETI benefit by outlining not only acute improvement in LCI but maintained stability in LCI trajectories and improved LCI stability sustained up to three years post-initiation.
Chowdhury, A. R.; Chowdhury, B.
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Background: Consumer use of AI chatbots for health advice is rising, yet triage safety relative to established services remains unclear. Australia's Healthdirect, a government-backed symptom checker with 2.4 million uses in FY2024-25, remains unevaluated against frontier large language models (LLMs), and whether premium subscriptions improve triage safety remains unexplored. This study compared the triage accuracy and safety of Healthdirect against six LLM configurations across ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, assessed whether paid subscriptions improve triage safety, and characterised each system's error patterns. Methods: Forty-five clinical vignettes from the Semigran et al. benchmark spanning emergency, non-emergent, and self-care categories (15 each) were evaluated across seven systems. Healthdirect was tested following a seven-rule interaction protocol. LLMs were evaluated using first-person patient-language prompts under free-tier and paid-tier conditions. Outcomes were triage accuracy, emergency sensitivity, under-triage, and critical misses, analysed using Cochran's Q, Bonferroni-corrected McNemar tests, Cohen's kappa, and Wilson intervals. Findings: Triage accuracy differed significantly (Cochran's Q = 36.79, p < 0.001). Healthdirect achieved 48.9% accuracy (95% CI 35.0% to 63.0%; kappa = 0.233) versus 73.3% to 86.7% for LLMs (kappa = 0.600 to 0.800). Healthdirect operated under conservative interactive defaults while LLMs received complete information in a single prompt, which may have disadvantaged Healthdirect. Emergency sensitivity was 46.7% versus 80.0% to 86.7% for LLMs. Healthdirect produced two critical misses; no LLM produced any across 270 evaluations (95% CI 0% to 1.4%). When LLMs undertriaged, they recommended GP care rather than self-care. No tier differences were significant (all p > 0.05), and most systems over-triaged self-care cases. Interpretation: Frontier LLMs demonstrated higher triage accuracy and safer error profiles than Healthdirect. All LLMs avoided critical misses; Healthdirect did not. Premium subscriptions did not significantly improve triage safety. These findings support clinical governance decisions about whether LLMs warrant formal evaluation alongside government-backed symptom checkers.
ye, y.; Zeng, Z.; Tian, X.; Yuan, Z.; Wang, J.; Zhu, Y.
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Artificial intelligence applied to routine electrocardiograms (ECGs) has largely focused on detecting existing disease or predicting individual cardiovascular outcomes. Whether ECGs can support prediction of multiple future diseases across organ systems remains unclear. We developed ECG-RISK, a multitask survival model for 67 incident three-character ICD-10 endpoints using ECG waveforms, demographic characteristics and routinely collected laboratory data from 86,673 MIMIC-IV patients. Discrimination was highest for heart, brain, kidney and lung endpoints, with organ-level C-indices ranging from 0.796 to 0.825, whereas liver and pancreatic endpoints showed lower discrimination. The ECG-only model achieved strong discrimination across most endpoints, whereas the incremental improvement gained by incorporating ECG and laboratory inputs beyond demographic information varied substantially across endpoints. Across the nine exploratory aggregated outcomes, Kaplan Meier curves showed clear separation among model-score tertiles. Discrimination was highest for dementia (C-index, 0.891) and heart failure (C-index, 0.857). These findings support the feasibility of ECG-based longitudinal risk prediction across multiple diseases. External validation and competing-risk analyses are required to assess generalisability and clinical utility.
Iliadis, I.; Heitland, I.; Hoeper, K.; Witte, T.; Kahl, K. G.; Stapel, B.; Meyer-Olson, D.
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Objective: The Brief-cope questionnaire explore coping behavior. However, the underlying factor structure remains a subject of ongoing debate. Exploratory factor analyses (EFA) conducted across different populations have identified factor solutions ranging from two to fourteen factors. As of yet, the underlying factor structure of the Brief-cope has not been investigated in patients with seropositive rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Therefore, the aim of this study was to explore the underlying factor structure of the Brief-cope in a German population of seropositive RA. Methods: 216 outpatients with seropositive RA completed the Brief-cope. An EFA with principal axis factoring and Promax rotation was conducted. Results: EFA indicated a five-factor solution. The five-factor solution explained 51.95% of variance. The identified factors were: (1) problem-focused coping (Cronbach's = .851), (2) emotion-focused coping ( = .754), (3) maladaptive coping ( = .747), (4) religious coping ( = .851), and (5) substance-use coping ( = .869). Conclusion: A five-factor solution provided the most appropriate representation of the underlying factor structure of the Brief-cope in patients with seropositive RA. This factor structure may serve as a suitable basis for future analyses of Brief-cope data in comparable RA populations.
Kremer, P.; Schlicker, N.; Hasnaj, R.; Bamberger, J.; Witte, T.; Haase, I.; Mayr, A.; Schmidt, C.; Osteras, N.; Baraliakos, X.; Kuhn, S.; Krusche, M.; Knitza, J.
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Objectives To evaluate whether access to a certified large language model (LLM)-based clinical decision support system improves physician diagnostic performance in rheumatology compared with conventional diagnostic resources alone. Methods In this multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial, 82 physicians from seven hospitals in two countries were randomised 1:1 to conventional diagnostic resources plus Prof. Valmed or conventional resources alone. Participants assessed three rheumatology vignettes before and after assistance. The primary outcome was top-1 diagnostic accuracy. Secondary outcomes included top-3 accuracy, diagnostic reasoning, confidence, case-processing time and perceived support quality. Results Top-1 accuracy increased from 22.2% to 33.3% in the intervention group and from 23.3% to 35.0% in the control group, with no between-group difference in improvement (adjusted OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.45 to 2.19; p=0.979). Differences in top-3 accuracy, diagnostic reasoning and confidence were also not significant. Assisted case-processing time was substantially shorter with LLM support (94 vs 206 s; adjusted mean difference -112 s, 95% CI -141 to -83; p<0.001). Information timeliness and perceived diagnostic support quality were rated significantly higher in the intervention group. Exploratory analyses showed persistent overconfidence and substantial AI over-reliance. Conclusions Certified LLM-based diagnostic support did not improve diagnostic accuracy compared with conventional resources, but substantially reduced case-processing time and improved perceived support quality. These findings suggest potential workflow benefits while highlighting overconfidence and over-reliance as important safety considerations.
Singh, A. M.; Yeh, T.-C.; DeBoer, C.; Al-Moujahed, A.; Lin, J. B.; Smith, S. J.; Sanislo, S.; Janjua, K. A.; Lin, T.-C.; Almeida, D. R. P.; Mruthyunjaya, P.; Mahajan, V. B.
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Purpose: To evaluate the safety, procedural performance, sample recovery, and surgeon preference of an ophthalmic needle designed specifically for anterior chamber (AC) paracentesis. Methods: In this multicenter study, AC paracentesis was performed in clinic and operating-room settings using a 32-gauge x 4-mm needle with low dead space. The procedure was evaluated using a standardized physician survey. Prespecified outcomes included procedure-related adverse events (primary outcome), needle entry and handling, aspiration and sample recovery, comparative performance versus a 30-gauge needle, and physician preference for future use. Results: A total of 110 needle uses by eight surgeons were included. No ocular complications occurred, including lens or iris injury, hyphema, AC collapse, wound leak, hypotony, infection, or retinal complication, and no procedure required needle exchange or conversion to another device. Two technical events without ocular sequelae were noted, in which needle entry was partial thickness and did not reach the AC (1.8%; exact 95% CI, 0.2%-6.4%). Physicians rated needle entry, handling and sample recovery as good or excellent. Compared with a 30-gauge needle, the study needle was rated as at least comparable across all assessed domains. All surgeons rated it better or much better for intra-procedural safety and preferred it for future AC taps. Conclusions and Relevance: This short, 32-gauge low-dead-space ophthalmic needle demonstrated a favorable safety profile and was preferred over a 30-gauge needle by all surgeons. As aqueous humor liquid biopsy expands in clinical diagnostics and trials, an ophthalmic-specific needle design may help improve the consistency and safety of aqueous humor collection for molecular analysis and broader clinical use. Keywords: Anterior chamber paracentesis; Aqueous humor; Liquid biopsy; Low dead space; Ophthalmic needle
Satorres-Perez, E.; Castillo-Marco, N.; Igual, M.; Cordero, T.; Munoz-Blat, I.; Monfort-Ortiz, R.; Marcos-Puig, B.; Simon, C.; Garrido-Gomez, T.; Perales-Marin, A.
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Background. In Europe, first-trimester combined screening with the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) algorithm identifies women at increased risk of preeclampsia who may benefit from personalized aspirin prophylaxis. However, a substantial proportion of early-onset preeclampsia (EOPE) remains undetected at clinically acceptable specificity. Objective. To evaluate the first-trimester performance of MaiRa for early-onset preeclampsia (EOPE) risk stratification by benchmarking it against FMF screening in the same women, characterizing discordant patient-level classification profiles and exploring potential implementation strategies. Study Design. This secondary case-control analysis was nested within the prospective, multicentre PREMOM cohort [NCT04990141], which enrolled women with singleton pregnancies across 14 tertiary hospitals in Spain. First-trimester MaiRa and FMF risk estimates were evaluated in the same 126 pregnant women, comprising 99 uncomplicated controls and 27 EOPE cases, defined by disease onset before 34 weeks. Discrimination was compared using a stratified paired bootstrap analysis of the areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic curves. Performance was assessed at prespecified clinical thresholds, and detection rates were evaluated at fixed false-positive rates. Universal and contingent MaiRa implementation strategies were also evaluated. Results. MaiRa showed greater first-trimester discrimination for EOPE than FMF combined screening (AUC, 0.974 vs 0.900; P=.040) and consistently achieved higher detection rates across fixed false-positive rates. At false-positive rates of 5% and 10%, MaiRa detected 85.2% and 92.6% of EOPE cases, compared with 44.4% and 70.4% for FMF, respectively. Patient-level analysis demonstrated that MaiRa identified 12 of 27 EOPE cases (44.4%) classified as low risk by FMF; these pregnancies generally exhibited less abnormal conventional first-trimester profiles, including fewer maternal risk factors, lower mean arterial pressure and lower uterine artery pulsatility index, yet 8 of 12 (66.7%) subsequently developed severe EOPE. Exploratory implementation analyses showed that universal MaiRa screening achieved the highest EOPE detection, whereas a contingent strategy using FMF for triage and reflex MaiRa testing reduced molecular testing to 35.7% of pregnancies while maintaining 77.8% sensitivity and 97.0% specificity. Conclusion. MaiRa provided greater first-trimester discrimination for EOPE than conventional combined screening and detected additional pregnancies that later developed severe disease despite less abnormal conventional screening profiles. The findings suggest that maternal plasma cfRNA profiling captures biological alterations not fully reflected by combined first-trimester screening and support further prospective evaluation in an independent, unselected obstetric population. Key words: early-onset preeclampsia; first-trimester screening; cell-free RNA; liquid biopsy; Fetal Medicine Foundation algorithm; combined screening; risk stratification; aspirin prophylaxis.